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Forum:2014 Pacific typhoon season/October-November
October 19W.VONGFONG Tropical Storm Vongfong Another one in WPac, this one should follow in Phanfone's footsteps in the long run and will probably become a major typhoon in 3 or 4 days. Ryan1000 14:56, October 3, 2014 (UTC) :: This one's ramping up fast, it's already a typhoon by JTWC and forecast to be a strong cat 4, maybe even cat 5, in 5 days or so. Japan definitely needs to watch out for this one, especially if Phanfone misses. Ryan1000 12:38, October 4, 2014 (UTC) ::: Yeah, it could be a large threat to Japan in the long run. It might be an epic winning C5 in the near future but Japan needs to prepare for Vongfong. In fact, the name "Vongfong" reminds me of some doomsday storm for some reason.--Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 20:59, October 4, 2014 (UTC) Typhoon Vongfong (Ompong) Where is everybody? This could be a very powerful storm in a few days and threaten land, Simon may have looked nice but it's weakening quickly now and it may not even reach Baja. Ryan1000 10:30, October 5, 2014 (UTC) : This forum was mainly active because of Andrew, but lately he's too busy to have time for the wiki. I guess the rest of us don't really care about this basin. :/ Anyways, Vongfong is 65 knots/75 mph/970 mbars, and due to the amount of time it has over water we could see something really powerful from this system. I also have a bad feeling about Vongfong. Stay tuned...--Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 00:01, October 6, 2014 (UTC) ::I understand that this thing just hit the Marianas and poses a threat to Japan in the long run, but on a non-serious note, I feel the need to point out that Vongfong is quite possibly the greatest TC name of all time. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 00:04, October 6, 2014 (UTC) :::I agree! The name sounds very freaking epic. That's probably why it reminded me of a doomsday storm (check out one of my previous posts above). It's got to be, the most awesome storm name of all time.--Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 01:13, October 6, 2014 (UTC) :::::Now 105 mph (90 by JMA) and 950 mbars. Still has a chance at becoming a cat 5, but it'll probably pull a Halong and weaken substantially before hitting Japan. Ryan1000 01:22, October 7, 2014 (UTC) This thing is exploding! 155 knots current, expected to strengthen to 165 KNOTS!--Isaac829 22:29, October 7, 2014 (UTC) : This is a REALLY INSANE system!!! It's now the strongest storm worldwide since Haiyan! Japan might need to really prepare unless it weakens significantly...--Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 00:14, October 8, 2014 (UTC) ::: Damn you Vongfong, you stole Genny's 1st place crown. :P Now named Ompong by PAGASA, but it'll likely turn north before hitting the Philippines and head for southern Japan like his predecesor Phanfone did. Pressure fell to 900 mbars with this explosive intensification, but it'll weaken substantially before hitting Japan. Ryan1000 00:45, October 8, 2014 (UTC) ::::For the record, "Super Typhoon" is a label only used by the JTWC, and the JMA is the official RSMC for the WPAC, so I've removed the "Super Typhoon Vongfong" header. That being said, holy f**k!!! I bought the idea of a powerful system but I never expected anything like this. Look at that satellite imagery! It's gorgeous! Look at that eye, that symmetry, that... everything!!! Best part is, it's reaching this extreme intensity while safely out to sea, unlike Haiyan, though hopefully it's a shadow of its former self by the time it reaches Japan. FWIW, Vongfong's 10-minute sustained winds are now at 115 kts. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 00:52, October 8, 2014 (UTC) ::::::Gorgeous? More like malevolent! VongFongOmPong is going to annhiliate everyone because he is a Decepticon powered by Megatron :O (By the way, VongFong and OmPong rhyme XD The name Bom Bom by Sam and the Womp comes into my head when I hear the names VongFong and OmPong XD) TO THE OTAKU, THIS STORM IS NOT KAWAII! rarity is best pony 18:42, October 8, 2014 (UTC) ::::::And, VFOP has decided to have a phone attatched to a fan for lunch. Yummy. rarity is best pony 18:45, October 8, 2014 (UTC) ::::::::Ha, nice pun on Phanfone. Back to Vongfong, it's now a strong cat 4, expect it to be a cat 2 or 1 when it reaches southern Japan. Ryan1000 20:51, October 9, 2014 (UTC) :::::::::According to the JMA, in 10-minute winds, it's now 100 knots (115 mph)/920 mbars and should weaken from here on out as it threatens the Asians up in Japan. And Liz I like your jokes and puns XD--Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 03:48, October 10, 2014 (UTC) :::::::::Well, this is weakening quickly. Now at 85 MPH . While I wasn't on the wiki when this peaked. I did see it peak, and it looked absolutely beautiful. Also, I have to agree with everybody and say that VongFong is an epic name. :::::::::-Goddamn it why do I always forget to sign leeboy100My Talk! 18:05, October 11, 2014 (UTC) Well, at least its weakening. BTW where is everyone? leeboy100My Talk! 02:42, October 12, 2014 (UTC) : People usually pay more attention to the ATL and EPac than other basins like the WPac, NIO and SHem, but since the WPac and NIO are the only basins spiting out big storms right now we might as well pay an ounce of attention to them...btw this isn't a tropical storm by JMA yet, Vongfong is still a typhoon, albeit a much weaker one than it once was. Ryan1000 09:29, October 12, 2014 (UTC) :: It's down to 65 knots (75 mph)/970 mbars according to ther JMA, and it's about to strike Japan as a weaker storm. But it was still epic in that it became the most powerful system since Haiyan last year! :) --Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 17:16, October 12, 2014 (UTC) :::: It looks like, in spite of what it was initially expected to be, Vongfong might actually be less severe than Phanfone was for Japan. That's good news, but it's still not a storm to be written off completely. Ryan1000 20:11, October 12, 2014 (UTC) Severe Tropical Storm Vongfong Weakening rapidly as it passes over Japan, it should die tomorrow. Ryan1000 22:35, October 13, 2014 (UTC) : I hope it wasn't bad for them and it should die very soon. Well, bye Vongfong, I enjoyed tracking you and witnessing you strengthening to something very powerful a few days ago! It was the strongest storm since Haiyan in November 2013.--Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 00:35, October 14, 2014 (UTC) Post-Tropical Cyclone Vongfong Down and out. Ryan1000 12:24, October 14, 2014 (UTC) 20W.NURI Tropical Depression 20W Expected to become a strong typhoon, but remain well out to sea while doing so. Ryan1000 03:09, October 31, 2014 (UTC) : This could become of a strong Nuri during the next few days, and I root for something strong as long as it continues to be away from land!--Steve820 |Happy 04:40, October 31, 2014 (UTC) Tropical Storm Nuri Now named, it has a chance to brush with Japan in a week or so, but otherwise it shouldn't affect land. Ryan1000 20:14, October 31, 2014 (UTC) Severe Tropical Storm Nuri (Paeng) Nuri (a Malay term for a blue crowned parroquet) has gotten its act together rather rapidly in the past few hours. As you can see, cloud tops are cooling in its CDO and feeder bands are wrapping tighter into the LLCC. Winds are now at 50 knots (60 mph, 95 km/h) (10-minute) with a pressure of 985 mbar (hPa; 29.09 inHg) per the JMA, a 10 knot wind increase in only three hours. Also, Nuri's winds are at 55 knots (65 mph, 100 km/h) (1-minute) per the JTWC, gusting to 70 knots (80 mph). Although the JMA only shows gradual intensification over the next few days, the JTWC acknowledges favorable upper level conditions and SST's greater than 28C in the Philippine Sea. As an STR steers Nuri northward over the next few days, peak winds of 120 knots (140 mph) (1-minute) are expected with gusts of 145 knots (165 mph). However, since the JTWC has consistently been nudging their forecast peak for Nuri winds, I predict peak winds of 150-160 knots (175-185 mph) (1-minute), giving us our second straight Category 5. In addition, PAGASA has named the storm Paeng. Finally, as a side note, I started a replacement name section below the retirements section, given Rammasun and a couple other names from the season are noteworthy of retirement. If anyone has any name ideas, please feel free to post them there. :) AndrewTalk To Me 01:18, November 1, 2014 (UTC) :The latest JTWC pragnostic reasoning has noted Nuri has rapidly consolidated, with feeder bands feeding tighter into a now-obscured LLCC. A microwave eye has been noted, and I will not be surprised if RI or even EI commences within the next several hours. AndrewTalk To Me 02:05, November 1, 2014 (UTC) ::Nuri is already looking very great and I am also seeing it RI in the next day. It would be awesome if it EI'd into a super typhoon since it's not really a land threat. �� --Steve820 |Happy 05:16, November 1, 2014 (UTC) Typhoon Nuri (Paeng) RI alert! RI alert! A eye is now present in Nuri per the latest JTWC prognostic reasoning, and a 1615Z composite image depicts a cyan ring surrounding it, which usually foreshadow rounds of fast intensification. Winds are now up to 75 knots (85 mph, 140 km/h) (1-minute) per the JTWC, gusting to 90 knots (105 mph). As the typhoon rounds the western periphery of the STR, it should steer into radial outflow, very warm SST's, and high oceanic heat content, allowing for a forecasted peak of 130 knots (150 mph) (1-minute) in the next couple of days, gusting to 160 knots (185 mph). Afterwards, as Nuri is sucked into the westerlies, extratropical transition is predicted at the end of the forecast period, along with some rapid weakening. On the JMA side, winds are now up to 70 knots (80 mph, 130 km/h) (10-minute), along with a pressure of 965 mbar (hPa; 28.50 inHg). Less rapid intensification is predicted by the agency, with a peak of 80 knots (90 mph) (10-minute)/950 mbar (hPa) expected for now. AndrewTalk To Me 21:06, November 1, 2014 (UTC) : At the very least, I expect this to become a cat 4, with winds near 140-150 mph, but I wouldn't at all be surprised if it becomes a cat 5. The jump in intensity is making both the JTWC and JMA more confident that Nuri will remain east of Japan; assuming that turns out to be true, the only real threat to land from Nuri will be high surf or, worst-case scenario, direct impacts to some military islands in the Pacific. Ryan1000 22:08, November 1, 2014 (UTC) :: It's now a really insane storm, the JMA has this at "violent" strength and the current intensity is set at 105 knots (120 mph) (10-minute winds)/910 mbars. It's still probably not going to affect much land but dang this is an incredible system. --Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 17:42, November 2, 2014 (UTC) :::155 kt in 1-minute winds.--Isaac829 19:32, November 2, 2014 (UTC) ::::And forecast by the JTWC to match Hayian's 170-kt (1-min) strength. Second line in this song (really cool music video btw, recommended) pretty much describes my reaction. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 19:43, November 2, 2014 (UTC) ::::::Incredible, another 180 mph category 5 super typhoon. Unlike her predecesor Vongfong, Nuri is expected to remain well at sea, which makes it all the more cool to watch, let's just hope that the huge swells from this thing don't cause too much trouble for the islands of the Pacific or southern Japan. Ryan1000 20:43, November 2, 2014 (UTC) :::::::Just look at this! The JTWC pragnostic reasoning notes the extremely symmetric eye of Nuri (13 nm wide), surrounded by an incredibly dense CDO and a very compact system. Also, the typhoon has developed its own anticyclone, which, combined with poleward and equatorial outflow, is providing exceptionally efficient ventilation for its intensity. The next 12 hours will be a utopia for Nuri as it rounds the the STR axis - even more poleward outflow, no effects of VWS, incredibly warm SST's, a lack of an ERC, among other factors. However, afterwards, increasing shear and decreasing SST's will prompt gradual weakening. Even as Nuri enters the baroclinic zone, its power will take it a while for it to become fully extratropical, which should not happen for another four or five days. P.S. Gusts in Nuri are currently at 190 knots (220 mph) per the JTWC. If it does match Haiyan's peak winds, gusts are estimated to be at 205 knots (235 mph), which would give Olivia '96 a run for her money. Come on, Nuri! Break Haiyan's record to smithereens! :) AndrewTalk To Me 21:52, November 2, 2014 (UTC) ::::::::THIS IS INSANE. I've like never seen a storm that has an actual shot at breaking 200 mph! I know Haiyan came close to it but still, it only peaked at 190/195 mph. I mean, holy sh!t, this is really incredibly insane seeing a storm trying to break Haiyan's strength to pieces. Nuri could also pwn Tip's record if it continues like this. C'mon Nuri, you can do this! Kick Haiyan's butt and reach 200 mph! :D --Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 22:49, November 2, 2014 (UTC) :::::::::Dafuq... --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 02:22, November 4, 2014 (UTC) ::::::::::WOAH WOAH WOAH! An 897 mbar extratropical system?!? The GFS is literally going nuts!!! :O Anyways, it has weakened to 925 mbars/100 knots (125 mph) (10-minute winds). Guess Haiyan didn't get beaten after all, I wish that would've happened though. :| --Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 03:59, November 4, 2014 (UTC) Nuri's just forecast to weaken from here on out, it's now 85 knots (100 mph) (10 minute winds)/945 mbars according to the JMA site and will become extratropical by Friday. It still was great to track though, especially with the insane strength it reached earlier! --Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 02:55, November 5, 2014 (UTC) :Steve and I seem to be the only ones on this wiki who have taken notice of the model forecasts for Nuri's extratropical intensity... the GFS is currently calling for a peak of 907 mbar (the forecast from earlier was a single ensemble member, I don't know what the GFS consensus was at that time), with the Euro calling for 919 mbar, I believe. Personally, as long as the strongest winds are away from land at the time, I hope this thing deepens below 900 mbar in its extratropical stage, simply because I want history to be made. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 23:36, November 5, 2014 (UTC) Severe Tropical Storm Nuri Down to a STS on the JMA scale, but still expected to be a huge 920 mbar superstorm when it hits Alaska. Ryan1000 13:21, November 6, 2014 (UTC) Post-Tropical Cyclone Nuri Lost tropical characteristics, but the worst impacts are likely still yet to come, for Alaska. Ryan1000 23:24, November 7, 2014 (UTC) :Look at this picture and the Tweet directly above it. Wow... --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 02:32, November 8, 2014 (UTC) ::Central pressure down to 924 mbar. Strongest non-tropical cyclone ever observed in the northern Pacific. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 14:53, November 8, 2014 (UTC) :::Actually, the pressure went up to 924 mbar after bottoming out at 920 mbar last night. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 18:12, November 8, 2014 (UTC) ::::This is just an insane extratropical system, but it should be weakening by now. 920 mbars?? That's just insane for an extratropical system! --Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 16:18, November 9, 2014 (UTC) November Well, it's that time of the year where the WPAC starts cooling down. I hope to see one more typhoon this month, along with a super typhoon out of Nuri. AndrewTalk To Me 21:36, November 1, 2014 (UTC) 21W.SINLAKU Tropical Depression 21W (Queenie) Currently east of Mindanao, not forecast to become too strong as it heads west. It could become Sinlaku before landfall, however. Ryan1000 00:40, November 27, 2014 (UTC) :21W has crossed over most of the Philippine archipelago, and convection is struggling to organize because of land interaction. Despite excellent outflow, Dvorak estimates only suggest 1-minute winds of 30 knots (35 mph, 65 km/h) gusting to 40 knots (45 mph, 75 km/h) per the JTWC. As 21W moves into the South China Sea, it will encounter conditions allowing for gradual intensification until the STR dictates it into Vietnam in a couple of days. The JTWC peak is set for 50 knots (60 mph, 95 km/h) (1-min) gusting to 65 knots (75 mph, 120 km/h). Meanwhile, the JMA report winds of 30 knots (10-min) as well, in addition to a pressure of 1004 mbar (hPa; 29.65 inHg). Only gradual intensification is expected from them, with a peak of 35 knots (10-min)/996 mbar (hPa; 29.41 inHg) forecasted in a couple of days. On a side note, a fatality has been reported from Queenie in the Philippines. AndrewTalk To Me 00:38, November 28, 2014 (UTC) Tropical Storm Sinlaku (Queenie) Boom! Just like that, the JMA has upgraded the depression to Tropical Storm Sinlaku (a Micronesian name for a Kosrae legendary goddess), with winds of 35 knots (40 mph, 65 km/h) (10-min) and a pressure of 1002 mbar (hPa; 29.59 inHg). The agency is still not crazy for intensification, forecasting only slight intensification to 40 knots (45 mph) (10-min)/996 mbar (hPa) before Vietnam landfall. Meanwhile, the JTWC has noted Sinlaku is beginning to consolidate as it moves over open waters, albeit still disorganized, and they have also upgraded the storm's one-minute winds to 35 knots (40 mph, 65 km/h) gusting to 45 knots (50 mph, 85 km/h) based on Dvorak estimates. The JTWC still expects the same from Sinlaku otherwise, with similar reasoning as well. AndrewTalk To Me 02:30, November 28, 2014 (UTC) :Sinlaku is really starting to pull it together. Although the JTWC notes through microwave imagery most of the convection is still displaced to the NE, EIR reveals it is consolidating with the LLCC. Based on Dvorak estimates, the agency has upgraded the storm's winds to 45 knots (50 mph, 85 km/h) (1-min) gusting to 55 knots (65 mph, 100 km/h). As Sinlaku is still moving under the influence of the STR, it has another 24 hours or so to intensify before slamming into Vietnam given the low wind shear and excellent dual outflow - 60 knots (70 mph) (1-min) gusting to 75 knots (85 mph) is the JTWC's new forecast peak. The JMA have also acknowledged the consolidation; they have upgraded Sinlaku's ten-minute winds to 45 knots as well, with a pressure of 992 mbar (hPa; 29.29 inHg). However, they do not expect much intensification from the storm hereafter. Does anyone think Sinlaku could briefly become a typhoon? Either way, it's not looking good in the Philippines - $105,000 (2014 USD) in losses and five fatalities have been reported. AndrewTalk To Me 14:04, November 28, 2014 (UTC) ::While the JMA have downgraded Sinlaku's pressure to 990 mbar (hPa; 29.23 inHg), the rate of its movement should make any more intensification unlikely before land. Also, per Wikipedia, impact statistics have changed - Sinlaku really only caused two fatalities and unknown damage losses. AndrewTalk To Me 02:02, November 29, 2014 (UTC) Severe Tropical Storm Sinlaku Now a STS by JMA. Could even be a typhoon before it hits Vietnam. Ryan1000 12:18, November 29, 2014 (UTC) :And she proves me wrong again! :P Both the JMA and JTWC have upgraded Sinlaku's winds to 50 knots (60 mph, 95 km/h), with the JMA maintaining its pressure and JTWC reporting gusts of 65 knots (75 mph, 120 km/h). Ryan, although SSMIS imagery shows convective banding is still consolidating into Sinlaku's center, it is just too close to land to get any stronger than 55 knots (65 mph) IMO, given the JTWC expects landfall in roughly six hours. P.S. Assuming Sinlaku does not intensify any more, this is her first non-typhoon incarnation on record (like Fengshen and Fung-wong). Her 2002 predesscor was a Category 3 that passed over Okinawa, and her 2008 incarnation was a wet Category 4 for Taiwan. AndrewTalk To Me 15:33, November 29, 2014 (UTC) Post-Tropical Cyclone Sinlaku Dead after it made landfall in Vietnam. Ryan1000 20:40, November 30, 2014 (UTC)